Q Note 1: Show all your work to get credit. Write your solutions clearly and neatly. Note 2: All your answers must be your original work. Cite your sources (if any) properly and include them in a references section at the end. Note 2: Question 1 worth 20 points and questions 2 and 3 worth 15 points each. Question 1 Chapter 7: Your hospital has applied for certification as a level 1 stroke center. It is critical that the following project is completed in 19 weeks, before the next Joint Commission survey. Project activity times are listed in the table below. a) Draw the network diagram and identify the project paths. b) What is the project completion time and total project costs if only normal times are used? c) Determine the minimum cost-schedule for this project to be completed in 19 weeks. d) What is the difference in total project costs between the earliest completion time of the project using normal times and the minimum cost-schedule you derived in part c? Activity Immediate Predecessors Normal Time (NT) (weeks) Normal Cost (NC) ($) Crash Time (CT) (weeks) Crash Cost (CC) ($) A --- 5 $600 3 $1,200 B A 6 $200 4 $600 C A 5 $500 3 $950 D C 3 $800 2 $1,200 E D 7 $1,600 5 $2,800 F B, D 5 $200 4 $400 G E, F 4 $400 3 $750 ? Question 2 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ED Visits 65,000 67,800 68,100 64,000 63,500 58,000 62,300 67,250 69,800 70,050 Chapter 8: An emergency department of a local hospital would like to forecast the number of visits for the next year. The number of visits for the department over the past 10 years are shown in the following table. a) Develop a three-year simple moving average forecast for years 4 through 10. b) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast for years 2 through 10 using a forecast of 65,000 visits for year 1 and ? = 0.70. c) Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for each of the forecasting methods studied in parts a and b with error measurement beginning in year 4. Based on your results, which forecasting method would yield the best results and why? Using that method, what is the forecast of ED visits for next year. Question 3 Chapter 8: Read and watch the video for the case “Forecasting and Supply Chain Management at Deckers Outdoor Corporation” (pages 323&324) and answer the following questions: a) Discuss factors that make forecasting particularly challenging at Deckers. b) Discuss forecasting methods that can be used to make forecasts for seasonal, fashionable products for which there is no history file. c) Deckers plans to expand internationally, thereby increasing the volume of shoes it must manage in the supply chain and the pattern of material flows. What implications does this strategy have on forecasting?